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Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion
223 FXUS61 KALY 171844 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 244 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC has continued the Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across the entire region Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. While some uncertainty in the convective evolution remains, guidance has trended higher with the amount of instability expected tomorrow, at least for western areas. SPC has expanded the 5% tornado risk further east into our area. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow afternoon and evening. Some storms may be severe with damaging winds, locally heavy rain, and even an isolated tornado. 2) Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday into Tuesday night. Again, some strong to severe storms may occur. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 2:40 PM EDT...It is a pleasant afternoon across the region, with relatively low humidity, temperatures in the 70s to low 80s, and Canadian wildfire smoke having mainly pushed off to the south of our region. Tranquil weather continues through most of tonight, although the plume of smoke to our south does look to lift back north overnight as a warm front approaches from the south. Increasing clouds tonight will keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than last night, and a few showers are possible towards sunrise. Tomorrow looks like a potentially busy severe weather day. As a potent upper shortwave digs into the upper Great Lakes region, an associated sub 1000 mb sfc low will track through the St. Lawrence Valley to our north. The deepening low will lift a warm front north through the region late tonight/tomorrow morning, placing us in the warm sector tomorrow afternoon. A pre-frontal trough will likely result in some convection developing by late tomorrow morning, departing to the east by early to mid- afternoon. Then, the approaching cold front will result in another round of convection late tomorrow afternoon and evening across the region, which is when the best chance for severe weather will be. A few discrete cells are also possible behind the pre-frontal trough and ahead of the second line of storms. Overall, guidance has trended more impressive with the amount of instability tomorrow, with decent agreement for areas west of I-87 seeing 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE with 500-1000 J to the east per the 12z HREF. This will overlap with impressive low-level and deep-layer thanks to a 35-45 kt 850 mb LLJ and 45-50 kt westerlies at 500 mb. While deep-layer shear vectors have a fairly perpendicular component to the approaching front, strong forcing from the upper trough, right entrance of the upper jet, and strong low-level convergence along the cold front may result in any discrete cells growing upscale into a line or broken line relatively quickly. Main hazard will be damaging winds, but a couple of tornadoes are also possible given low (