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Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion
108 FXUS61 KALY 301143 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 643 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A storm system moving through the region will allow for breezy conditions today with a mix of rain and snow. While most areas won`t see much snow accumulation, portions of the Adirondacks will see a light to moderate amounts. After a break on Monday, another storm will bring a widespread accumulation snowfall to the region for Tuesday. Temperatures will remain below normal through the upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Message: - Winter Weather Advisory for the western Adirondacks through 1 AM Monday for 4-8" of snowfall. Discussion: As of 115 AM EST...A strong area of high pressure (around 1034 hpa) is located just east of the area over southeastern New England. Meanwhile, a storm system is moving across the Midwest and will be heading across the Great Lakes for today. IR satellite imagery shows that widespread mid and high level cloud cover has overspread the entire area. These clouds have been increasing thickness over the past few hours, although they were thin enough for temps to fall into the 20s for most of the area earlier this evening. Although winds are currently fairly light, they will increase out of the south to southeast for later this morning, as the pressure gradient increases over the area. Because of this and the clouds in place, temps have probably already reached their lows and will either hold steady or slowly rise through the late night hours and into the morning on Sunday. Low-level dewpoints are fairly low with values in the teens, so there is some dry air in place at the surface. With isentropic lift occurred, some light precip will break out across the region, although some of this will be lost to virga to the dry air in place at the surface. CAMs suggest a period of light snow will spread southwest to northeast across the region between 4AM and 8 AM, although some of this will be very light, especially in valley areas. Best chance of seeing a light coating to an inch with this activity will be across northern, western and high terrain areas. After 8 AM through about Noon, most of the area will be fairly dry, although some upslope light snow will be ongoing across the Adirondacks through the morning. Temps should be starting to rise into the 30s for most areas outside of the Adirondacks and southerly winds will be increasing, especially in the larger north-south valleys, where some gusts will exceed 25 mph. For the afternoon hours, there should be another batch of light precip that will be spreading northeast across the area from the Poconos and northern NJ. With surface temps warmer at this point (valley areas spiking in the low to mid 40s), most of this will be rain showers, although high terrain areas (especially the Adirondacks and southern VT) may still be cold enough for precip to be light snow. Finally, one last batch of rain showers is expected along/just ahead of the storm`s occluded front, which will be crossing the evening hours. Behind the front, precip will end for most areas, but some light lake enhanced and upslope snow showers should continue for the western Adirondacks into tonight. Overall, most areas won`t have much accumulation, but upslope- favored areas of the western Adirondacks will see 4 to 8 inches, where a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect. This will be a fairly limited area within the Adirondack Park, but Old Forge should see Advisory-level amounts from this system. Behind the initial occluded front, winds will become southwesterly, but remain breezy for tonight. A secondary boundary should cross close to daybreak Monday, allowing winds to become west to northwest and temps falling into the 20s for Monday morning. High pressure will be building into the area behind the secondary boundary for Monday with a partly to mostly sunny sky. Daytime temps will be chilly in the 30s (some 20s for the high terrain). Clouds will begin returning ahead of the next system for Monday evening with some light rain possible by late Monday night and temps falling into the teens to low 20s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Message: - Southern stream low pressure system passing off the Northeast coast will bring a widespread accumulating snowfall to the region for Tuesday. Latest NBM probabilities show a 30-60% chance for 4+" across the forecast area, with the greatest probabilities across the Catskills, southern Vermont and Berkshires. Discussion: On Tuesday, our region will be impacted by a fast moving low pressure area moving within the southern stream. This will be a fairly progressive system, with a fairly weak and open upper level wave aloft. Despite this, there should be fairly decent amount of precip, as the southerly flow will allow for some Gulf and Atlantic moisture to get pulled into the system and there should be a decent band of precip on the northwest side of the low pressure area, aided by a strong thermal gradient. Even with this system just a few days away, there are marked differences in the guidance regarding the storm track, storm strength and axis of heaviest QPF. With a cold air mass in place, nearly the entire forecast area will be seeing snowfall, with just far southeastern areas having a risk for some rainfall mixing in if a more northern storm track is realized. Have leaned close to the NBM blend considering the differences, which lines up well with the ensembles as well. This would bring advisory-level snowfall to much of the region (NBM probs show about a 30-60% chance for 4+" for most of the region). There still is a risk for some warning-level snowfall, mainly for the Catskills, southern VT and Berkshires, although probability from the NBM is only about 20-30% for those areas for 8". Some mesoscale banding could allow for warning-level totals to occur, but exactly where this occurs is still a question that will depend on the exact storm track. Based on collab with neighboring offices and WPC, will wait on Winter Storm Watches until storm track is in better focus, but aforementioned high terrain areas would be most favored at this time. In either case, travel looks to be impacted on Tuesday, especially the afternoon and evening commute, as the first widespread snowfall will lead to snow covered roadways and reduced visibility for much of the daylight hours, with precip winding down for southwest to northeast during the late evening hours. Behind this storm system, below normal temps look to continue to the rest of the week with highs in the 20s and 30s and overnight lows in the teens (even some single digits possible by the late week). Another round of snow showers will be possible with an Arctic front on Thursday and another period of steadier snowfall is also possible with another low pressure for Friday night into Saturday. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 12z/Mon...A low pressure system will push across the TAF sites during this TAF period. A band of snow showers will lift north of KGFL by 13z/Sun. Otherwise, a lull in precipitation is likely between 12-16z/Sun before another period of rain showers or a rain/snow mix occurs between 16z-20z/Sun with mainly MVFR conditions. If precipitation remains snow at KGFL, some IFR vsbys could occur. Precipitation will then transition to isolated to scattered showers between 20z/Sun to 02z/Mon where cigs/vsbys will likely be more mixed MVFR/VFR with the best chances for more persistent MVFR or borderline IFR at KPSF. The system`s cold front moves through after 00z/Mon with a gradual improvement back to VFR expected at all sites, except KPSF where MVFR upslope clouds return after 06z/Mon. Wind will increase out of the south to southeast at 10-15 kt with a few gusts 20-25 kt through this afternoon, especially at KALB/KPSF. Wind will then become west to southwesterly after 00z/Mon at around 10 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt continuing at KALB/KPSF. Outlook... Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SN. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SN. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ032-033. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...27 SHORT TERM...27 LONG TERM...27 AVIATION...33