Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion
110 FXUS61 KALY 221503 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1003 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025 .SYNOPSIS... After a bone-chillingly cold start to the morning, temperatures rise into the single digits to 10s today with mainly dry conditions and increasing afternoon clouds. Below normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions persist through the end of the week, aside from some snow showers in the western Adirondacks. Temperatures moderate to more seasonable levels with increasing chances for some light snow showers Sunday into the first half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... .UPDATE...As of 10 AM EST, Cold Weather Advisory has been allowed to expire across the region, as temps slowly warm up above zero with only light wind. Expect max temps to reach between 15 and 20 degrees in valley areas, and 5 to 10 above across higher elevations this afternoon under mostly sunny skies. Some high/mid level clouds will start to increase around or just after sunset, particularly areas west of the Hudson River. [PREVIOUS AFD]... Key Message: - Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 25 to 30 below zero continue through the early morning hours. Cold Weather Advisories are in effect for most of the region except for the Hudson Valley, upper Hudson Valley, and CT River Valley. Discussion: .Update...As of 6:30 AM EST...Dangerously cold weather continues this morning with temperatures ranging from around 0 in portions of the Hudson Valley to as low as -22F at Piseco based on latest NYS mesonet and ASOS obs. Main adjustment with this update was to knock temps down a few more degrees across our northwestern ADK zones where lake effect clouds dissipated within the last couple hours and allowed temperatures to drop several degrees into the negative 10s. Some more minor adjustments to temperatures and dew points across the rest of the region too, but overall the message for dangerous cold region-wide remains the same. Coldest temperatures and wind chills will occur over the next hour or two, and should start to warm after that. The current cold weather advisories that are in effect for most of the region will expire at 10 AM this morning, but nevertheless it will remain quite chilly today. Please see previous discussion below for more details... .Previous...Upper level shortwave trough and the core of a cold pool aloft remain centered over our region early this morning. At the surface high pressure is located overhead, which has allowed for mainly calm winds and clear skies. Combined with the relatively fresh snowpack, this has allowed for ideal radiational cooling conditions. Temperatures across the region are well below even the coldest numerical guidance. As such, cold weather advisories remain in effect for most of the region through 10 AM this morning, and we expanded the advisory to include Dutchess and Litchfield Counties where the advisory threshold is slightly warmer at -10F. Anywhere with even a light wind is seeing even colder wind chills. The coldest temperatures and wind chills are expected now through shortly after sunrise this morning. Today will be quite chilly but overall will feature tranquil and dry weather. The day starts off mainly clear, but as the surface high slides off to the east the low and mid-level flow turns southwesterly, resulting in weak warm advection. Combined with an upper shortwave disturbance approaching from the southwest this evening, we will likely see increasing mid and high clouds this afternoon and evening. Highs will only rise into the single digits (terrain) to 10s (valleys). && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Key Message: - Moderating, but still below normal, temperatures and mainly dry weather through Friday night. - Some light snow showers possible Thursday across the Adirondacks, with some additional lake effect snow showers Friday evening and night. Discussion: Tonight remains mainly dry, although there will be plenty of mid and high clouds around with weak mid-level warm advection and a couple of additional upper shortwaves moving towards our region from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Low temperatures forecast is somewhat tricky tonight, as clouds should generally help keep temperatures warmer than previous nights. However, it may take a few additional hours for the clouds to move over areas south and east of Albany, especially in the Taconics and southwestern New England. With these areas also closest to the surface high, winds will be lighter, so can`t rule out temperatures dropping quickly after sunset here. If this were to happen, then overnight lows will likely end up below the current forecast for single digits to negative single digits. While more clouds and a light breeze are expected further north and west, any of the more sheltered areas could similarly see temperatures below the current forecast if any breaks in the clouds occur. Despite the increasing clouds and weak upper forcing, a lack of moisture will lead to dry conditions overnight tonight. Thursday and Thursday night...Positively tilted upper trough and an associated weak surface low track north of our region, which will likely allow for some light snow showers across our northwestern ADK zones. Most of the rest of the region remains dry with the best forcing off to the north and west. Highs Thursday will be several degrees warmer with 10s to 20s, although this is still several degrees below normal. Any snow showers end behind a cold frontal passage Thursday night. We remain under a cold airmass aloft, but light winds and some clouds should keep lows mainly in the single digits. Friday and Friday night...A ridge of high pressure builds over the region at the surface beneath confluent upper flow, while another upper shortwave tracks overhead. While most of the region will see dry conditions, cold advection and westerly winds over the Great Lakes will allow for another lake effect band to develop off of Lake Ontario. Inversion heights are lower at around 800 mb and 850 mb winds are weaker at only around 20 kt, so this should limit the intensity and inland extent of this band. That said, we could still see some lake effect snow showers reach the western ADKs Friday and Friday night, with light accumulations up to a couple inches not out of the question depending on the band evolution. Otherwise, temperatures remain on the cold side, with highs Friday similar to those on Thursday. With the ridge of high pressure overhead Friday night and clearing skies, we will likely see favorable radiational cooling conditions once again. Went below NBM guidance with lows in the single digits to negative single digits, but may need to continue adjusting temps down over the coming days if confidence increases in these favorable radiational cooling conditions. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Messages: - Mainly dry with temperatures moderating close to normal by early next week Discussion: Fast moving shortwave troughs will be moving across the Northeast during the long term period, reinforcing the main longwave trough in place. However, moisture will be very limited with these fast moving systems, so little precip will occur through the period. With the cold northwest flow, any precip will be in the form of snow showers and will mainly be limited to northwestern areas aided by upslope flow or lake influence. Latest NBM probabilities shows high chances for at least some measurable snowfall over the western Adirondacks between Sunday and Tuesday (over 70% of a fresh dusting), with a few inches likely. However, probabilities lower considerably for more moderate to heavy snowfall amounts, with higher probabilities for those type of amounts more limited to lake- effect areas of the Tug Hill Plateau to the west of the region. Meanwhile, the rest of the forecast area could see some passing snow showers and flurries through the long term period, especially on Sunday and again on Tuesday, although amounts for measurable snowfall are generally under 20 percent. Temperatures will be moderating close to normal through the period. Saturday will still be another below normal day, with highs only in the 20s. However, as the upper level flow starts to flatten out, temps will return closer to normal for Sunday through early next week, with most valley areas in the low to mid 30s. Overnight lows will continue to remain chilly in the teens. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Flying conditions are currently mainly VFR across the region as a very cold and dry air mass is allowing for clear skies. High pressure is centered over southwestern Pennsylvania and this will continue to keep clear skies and calm winds in place for the start of the day. Some high clouds are in place along the eastern seaboard, but these will be gradually shifting offshore, as a large coastal system along the Southeast coast continues to shift away from the CONUS. Some haze has been occurring at KPSF overnight, although the exact cause of this is unknown and may not be meteorological, as there remains a large t/td spread, dry air mass and no evidence of fog, mist or low clouds on satellite imagery. During the day today, high pressure will continue to keep fairly clear skies in place. Some mid and high level clouds may gradually increase towards evening, but it will remain VFR. Westerly winds around 5 kts are expected during the afternoon hours and they will shift to the south towards evening at 5 kts or less. It will stay VFR into tonight with no precip. Some more mid level clouds may increase for the overnight hours as the next shortwave trough starts to approach, but no aviation impacts are expected at this time, with continued light to calm winds. Outlook... Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Main NEAR TERM...KL/Main SHORT TERM...Main LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Frugis