Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for ALY NWS Office
110
FXUS61 KALY 221503
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1003 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After a bone-chillingly cold start to the morning,
temperatures rise into the single digits to 10s today with mainly
dry conditions and increasing afternoon clouds. Below normal
temperatures and mainly dry conditions persist through the end of
the week, aside from some snow showers in the western Adirondacks.
Temperatures moderate to more seasonable levels with increasing
chances for some light snow showers Sunday into the first half of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...As of 10 AM EST, Cold Weather Advisory has been
allowed to expire across the region, as temps slowly warm up
above zero with only light wind. Expect max temps to reach
between 15 and 20 degrees in valley areas, and 5 to 10 above
across higher elevations this afternoon under mostly sunny
skies. Some high/mid level clouds will start to increase around
or just after sunset, particularly areas west of the Hudson
River.

[PREVIOUS AFD]...

Key Message:

- Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 25 to 30 below zero
  continue through the early morning hours. Cold Weather
  Advisories are in effect for most of the region except for
  the Hudson Valley, upper Hudson Valley, and CT River Valley.

Discussion:
.Update...As of 6:30 AM EST...Dangerously cold weather continues
this morning with temperatures ranging from around 0 in portions
of the Hudson Valley to as low as -22F at Piseco based on latest
NYS mesonet and ASOS obs. Main adjustment with this update was
to knock temps down a few more degrees across our northwestern
ADK zones where lake effect clouds dissipated within the last
couple hours and allowed temperatures to drop several degrees
into the negative 10s. Some more minor adjustments to
temperatures and dew points across the rest of the region too,
but overall the message for dangerous cold region-wide remains
the same. Coldest temperatures and wind chills will occur over
the next hour or two, and should start to warm after that. The
current cold weather advisories that are in effect for most of
the region will expire at 10 AM this morning, but nevertheless
it will remain quite chilly today. Please see previous
discussion below for more details...

.Previous...Upper level shortwave trough and the core of a cold
pool aloft remain centered over our region early this morning.
At the surface high pressure is located overhead, which has
allowed for mainly calm winds and clear skies. Combined with the
relatively fresh snowpack, this has allowed for ideal
radiational cooling conditions. Temperatures across the region
are well below even the coldest numerical guidance. As such,
cold weather advisories remain in effect for most of the region
through 10 AM this morning, and we expanded the advisory to
include Dutchess and Litchfield Counties where the advisory
threshold is slightly warmer at -10F. Anywhere with even a light
wind is seeing even colder wind chills. The coldest
temperatures and wind chills are expected now through shortly
after sunrise this morning.

Today will be quite chilly but overall will feature tranquil and
dry weather. The day starts off mainly clear, but as the surface
high slides off to the east the low and mid-level flow turns
southwesterly, resulting in weak warm advection. Combined with
an upper shortwave disturbance approaching from the southwest
this evening, we will likely see increasing mid and high clouds
this afternoon and evening. Highs will only rise into the single
digits (terrain) to 10s (valleys).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

 - Moderating, but still below normal, temperatures and mainly
   dry weather through Friday night.

 - Some light snow showers possible Thursday across the
   Adirondacks, with some additional lake effect snow showers
   Friday evening and night.

Discussion:

Tonight remains mainly dry, although there will be plenty of mid
and high clouds around with weak mid-level warm advection and a
couple of additional upper shortwaves moving towards our region
from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Low temperatures forecast
is somewhat tricky tonight, as clouds should generally help keep
temperatures warmer than previous nights. However, it may take a
few additional hours for the clouds to move over areas south
and east of Albany, especially in the Taconics and southwestern
New England. With these areas also closest to the surface high,
winds will be lighter, so can`t rule out temperatures dropping
quickly after sunset here. If this were to happen, then
overnight lows will likely end up below the current forecast for
single digits to negative single digits. While more clouds and
a light breeze are expected further north and west, any of the
more sheltered areas could similarly see temperatures below the
current forecast if any breaks in the clouds occur. Despite the
increasing clouds and weak upper forcing, a lack of moisture
will lead to dry conditions overnight tonight.

Thursday and Thursday night...Positively tilted upper trough and
an associated weak surface low track north of our region, which
will likely allow for some light snow showers across our
northwestern ADK zones. Most of the rest of the region remains
dry with the best forcing off to the north and west. Highs
Thursday will be several degrees warmer with 10s to 20s,
although this is still several degrees below normal. Any snow
showers end behind a cold frontal passage Thursday night. We
remain under a cold airmass aloft, but light winds and some
clouds should keep lows mainly in the single digits.

Friday and Friday night...A ridge of high pressure builds over
the region at the surface beneath confluent upper flow, while
another upper shortwave tracks overhead. While most of the
region will see dry conditions, cold advection and westerly
winds over the Great Lakes will allow for another lake effect
band to develop off of Lake Ontario. Inversion heights are lower
at around 800 mb and 850 mb winds are weaker at only around 20
kt, so this should limit the intensity and inland extent of this
band. That said, we could still see some lake effect snow
showers reach the western ADKs Friday and Friday night, with
light accumulations up to a couple inches not out of the
question depending on the band evolution. Otherwise,
temperatures remain on the cold side, with highs Friday similar
to those on Thursday. With the ridge of high pressure overhead
Friday night and clearing skies, we will likely see favorable
radiational cooling conditions once again. Went below NBM
guidance with lows in the single digits to negative single
digits, but may need to continue adjusting temps down over the
coming days if confidence increases in these favorable
radiational cooling conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:

 - Mainly dry with temperatures moderating close to normal by early
   next week

Discussion:

Fast moving shortwave troughs will be moving across the Northeast
during the long term period, reinforcing the main longwave trough in
place.  However, moisture will be very limited with these fast
moving systems, so little precip will occur through the period. With
the cold northwest flow, any precip will be in the form of snow
showers and will mainly be limited to northwestern areas aided by
upslope flow or lake influence.  Latest NBM probabilities shows high
chances for at least some measurable snowfall over the western
Adirondacks between Sunday and Tuesday (over 70% of a fresh
dusting), with a few inches likely.  However, probabilities lower
considerably for more moderate to heavy snowfall amounts, with
higher probabilities for those type of amounts more limited to lake-
effect areas of the Tug Hill Plateau to the west of the region.
Meanwhile, the rest of the forecast area could see some passing snow
showers and flurries through the long term period, especially on
Sunday and again on Tuesday, although amounts for measurable
snowfall are generally under 20 percent.

Temperatures will be moderating close to normal through the period.
Saturday will still be another below normal day, with highs only in
the 20s.  However, as the upper level flow starts to flatten out,
temps will return closer to normal for Sunday through early next
week, with most valley areas in the low to mid 30s.  Overnight lows
will continue to remain chilly in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently mainly VFR across the region as a
very cold and dry air mass is allowing for clear skies.  High
pressure is centered over southwestern Pennsylvania and this will
continue to keep clear skies and calm winds in place for the start
of the day. Some high clouds are in place along the eastern
seaboard, but these will be gradually shifting offshore, as a large
coastal system along the Southeast coast continues to shift away
from the CONUS.  Some haze has been occurring at KPSF overnight,
although the exact cause of this is unknown and may not be
meteorological, as there remains a large t/td spread, dry air mass
and no evidence of fog, mist or low clouds on satellite imagery.

During the day today, high pressure will continue to keep fairly
clear skies in place.  Some mid and high level clouds may gradually
increase towards evening, but it will remain VFR. Westerly winds
around 5 kts are expected during the afternoon hours and they will
shift to the south towards evening at 5 kts or less.

It will stay VFR into  tonight with no precip.  Some more mid level
clouds may increase for the overnight hours as the next shortwave
trough starts to approach, but no aviation impacts are expected at
this time, with continued light to calm winds.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main
NEAR TERM...KL/Main
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion