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Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion
398 FXUS61 KALY 020600 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 200 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring dry and cool conditions to the area through tonight, with breezy winds becoming light and variable. More clouds and precipitation arrive Wednesday and Wednesday night, with a wintry mix including freezing rain expected at higher elevations. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Key Messages: - Dry and cold tonight with high pressure to the north Updates: As of 1 AM EDT, the forecast remains in good shape with minor updates to adjust temperatures and cloud cover to match latest obs. Elsewhere, all remains unchanged with additional details in the previous discussion below. Discussion: 18z surface analysis showed expansive high pressure centered just north of the Great Lakes, with ridging extending southward into the Ohio River Valley. Skies were clear to partly cloud across the region with 300 PM temperatures in the mid 40s to near 50. High pressure will remain the rule through tonight as it slowly drifts east across Ontario and Quebec. Expect continued clear to partly cloudy skies initially before mid to high clouds increase around midnight as moisture increases aloft. Despite those clouds, it will get fairly chilly with overnight lows dropping into the teens (terrain) to upper 20s (valleys) with light & variable winds. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: - Unsettled weather through the short term with rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow all expected - Temperatures warm well above normal Thursday Discussion: Wednesday daytime will be dry with continued increasing clouds and high pressure departing to the east. The clouds are tied to a warm front that will be approaching the region from the southwest, which looks to arrive late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Increasing WAA, moisture and isentropic lift will lead to development of stratiform precip along and just north of the front, which will be moving into the region from west to east beginning late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Outside of the higher elevations, precipitation will begin as a rain/sleet mix with strong winds aloft ushering in temperatures above freezing above 800 hPa, with colder temperatures below and surface temperatures near to just above freezing. Higher elevations of the southern ADKs and southern Greens ahead of the warm front will see more of a freezing rain/sleet mix with surface temperatures closer to or just below freezing. Latest guidance remains in agreement in favoring ice amounts of only a few hundredths up to a tenth of an inch (40-70%), and is favored to fall Wednesday evening through early Thursday morning before changing to all rain. While amounts are light, it will be enough to create a brief period of slippery conditions, so will need to continue to monitor the need for a Winter Weather Advisory. Total QPF will range from around a quarter to as much as an inch, with the highest amounts across the southern ADKs. Steady rain will slowly come to an end midday Thursday with the warm front lifting north into the ADKs and Greens. The warm sector should follow and build north into much of eastern NY and western New England, allowing temperatures to warm well above normal for the afternoon. How warm we get will depend on cloud cover, but latest ensemble and deterministic models support highs well into the 60s areawide. Highs around 70 into the lower 70s will be possible for locations that manage to see sunshine. The mild air mass will quickly get shunted out of the area Thursday evening with the approach of a cold front from the northwest. Additional isolated to scattered rain showers will be possible as a result of weak lift with the front, but more numerous activity will be well north of the region where stronger shortwave forcing will be located. As the front progresses across the region, it will slowly stall across the Mid Hudson Valley late Thursday night, where additional rain showers will be possible through late Thursday night. Despite the frontal passage, lows will Thursday night will only drop into the mid 30s (terrain) to upper 40s (valleys) as light winds keep CAA low. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Messages: - More rain for the weekend with another push of warmer air north and subsequent strong cold front - Temperatures dropping well below normal by the middle of next week Discussion: A dry start to the long term is expected with weak surface high pressure and ridging aloft building across the region. With 925-850 hPa temps warming back into the single digits to near 10 C and sufficient vertical mixing, there is high confidence of PM highs warming back into the 50s/60s for much of the area outside of higher elevations. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s/40s with increasing clouds. Another warm front is progged to surge back north into region Saturday through Sunday, with temperatures favoring rain for much of the region through the event duration (low potential for a rain/snow mix at higher elevations of the ADKs and southern Greens). Uncertainty on exact rain amounts at this time, but there is potential for amounts greater than half an inch (40-60%) given a favorable connection to Gulf moisture and PWATs climbing well above 1.00" for much of the region. Rain chances will continue as a cold front progresses through the region Sunday, and should quickly end Monday morning for most. CAA, northwest flow behind the front and the arrival of additional lift with a trough will favor upslope and lake enhanced rain/snow showers through early next week, though chances are low (10-30%) at this time. The main story will be temperatures as highs in the 50s/60s Saturday and Sunday will fall into 30s/40s Tuesday, with potential for highs only in the 20s in higher elevations of the ADKs, Catskills and southern Greens. Some deterministic models such as the ECMWF have highs cooler highs, so will need to monitor this over the coming days. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06z Thursday...VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period with dry conditions and mainly BKN high level cirrus clouds. Conditions will then gradually lower to MVFR especially at KGFL/KPSF after 00z Thu, as a warm front approaches. Precip expected to be mainly rain/sleet through 06z Thu at KGFL/KPSF. Precip should be more scattered in coverage at KALB/KPOU, so will mention PROB30 for some intermittent -RA and MVFR cigs through 06z Thu. Winds will initially be northerly around 4-8 kt, becoming southeast and increasing to 7-12 kt by late this morning. Occasional gusts around 15-20 kt will also develop during the afternoon to evening hours. Outlook... Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA...SN...SLEET. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. && .FIRE WEATHER... A low risk of fire spread will remain in place across the Leatherstocking Fire Zone, including parts of the Mohawk Valley into Schoharie County through this evening, and again for a brief period Wednesday afternoon. This is thanks to a dry air mass in place, with dewpoints in the teens to low 20s (RHs ranging from around 25-35%) and gusty winds. The risk will subside late Wednesday with increasing clouds and moisture building into the region ahead of a warm front. After collaboration with neighboring offices and state officials, agreed that an SPS for the Leatherstocking Fire Zone is not needed at this time as confidence in risk of fire spread is low. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Speck NEAR TERM...Gant/Speck SHORT TERM...Speck LONG TERM...Speck AVIATION...JPV FIRE WEATHER...Speck