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Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion
902 FXUS61 KALY 161824 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 224 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Only minor adjustments to the previous forecast, but this does include increasing high temperatures this afternoon. Concern still remains for some strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening, especially north and west of the Capital District. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. There remains a marginal to slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with the best chance near and north of I- 90. Damaging winds, large hail and frequent lightning are the primary hazards from any severe storms. 2. After a stretch of unseasonably warm temperatures through Saturday, temperatures trend below normal Sunday and Monday. Impactful weather is unlikely through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... As of 2:25 PM EDT: Current sfc analysis shows a 1004 mb sfc low in southern Quebec, with the associated warm front having lifted into the North Country, north of our CWA. This places our area in the warm sector, with temperatures already in the upper 70s to low 80s outside of the ADKs, with some mid to upper 80s in the Mid Hudson Valley. As the sfc low tracks eastwards this afternoon, so will an associated pre-frontal trough out ahead of the system`s cold front. A strong shortwave currently located over Lake Michigan will also approach. The combination of height falls aloft and low-level forcing is expected to result in development of showers and thunderstorms, some of which could become strong to severe... Current radar shows a few cells already developing back near Syracuse with the system`s pre-frontal trough. There question earlier today has been if forcing with the pre-frontal trough will be strong enough to initiate convection, or if we would have to wait for the arrival of the cold front and upper trough later this evening. Based on current radar and satellite showing an area of agitated cu in the Mohawk Valley and southern ADKs, current thinking is leaning towards at least isolated to possibly scattered convection with the pre-frontal trough by 3-4 PM, which aligns with most CAM guidance. The current environment shows 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE across much of the region, although mixed layer CAPE is lower at 500-1000 J/kg. 18z KALY sounding shows only ~600 J/kg of SBCAPE, but this may be underdone due to the sfc temperature being ~5 degrees F cooler at the time it was launched vs the current obs. SPC mesoanalysis also shows >50 kt of deep-layer shear across most of the region at this time, with forecast soundings showing most of this shear is unidirectional. This deep-layer shear profile will allow for any storms that develop out ahead of the cold front to become supercellular, with long straight hodographs suggesting the possibility of splitting cells. DCAPE values right now are not overly impressive, but DCAPE is still expected to increase over the next few hours as the BL continues to mix with daytime heating. Primary threat this afternoon with any storms will be damaging wind gusts, but steep mid-level lapse rates (almost 7C/km per the 18z KALY sounding), WBZ heights around 10 kft, and straight hodographs all indicate the possibility for large (>1" diameter) hail with any discrete cells that develop this afternoon. While an isolated tornado can`t be ruled, out, the lack of directional shear and relatively high LCLs suggest that the risk for tornadoes is on the lower side this afternoon. Should any tornadoes occur, the best chance would be across northern areas closer to the warm frontal boundary (more directional shear and lower LCLs) or in the upper Hudson Valley where locally backed low-level flow due to terrain channeling will lead to locally increased low-level directional shear. Cold front and better forcing will arrive this evening towards sunset. The better forcing should allow for a line of convection to develop, but this will be starting to weaken as it tracks into our region after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Nevertheless, there will still be a damaging wind threat with these storms as they will be moving into a well-mixed environment with an inverted V sounding favorable for strong cold pools/downdrafts. Some uncertainty exists in how far south and east the damaging wind threat will extend, but the area outlined by the SPC marginal risk looks like a very reasonable approximation. Threat for severe weather should diminish overnight with the loss of instability, but lingering showers are possible through tonight with lows mainly in the 50s to around 60. KEY MESSAGE 2... Friday, some lingering showers are expected, especially in the morning, for eastern and southern portions of our region with the upper shortwave trough and associated cold pool aloft overhead. These showers should diminish in the afternoon/evening as upper ridging builds overhead. Tranquil weather then expected through Saturday with ridging aloft and at the surface over our region. Temperatures remain above normal, but will be cooler than the previous few days. Saturday night into Sunday, a strong (sub 990 mb) sfc low tracking near Hudson Bay will drag a trailing cold front through our region. This will bring chances for showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder to the region Saturday night. 06 and 12z guidance has been consistent in developing a wave of low pressure along the front Sunday, which will help to slow the front down and keep lingering showers across our region through the day. With cold air working into the region, precip will likely change to snow for the mountainous areas, where minor snowfall accumulations are possible. Any precipitation should end by Monday morning. Monday looks quite chilly (highs in the 30s to 40s) and breezy, but mainly dry. Temperatures moderate somewhat towards the middle of next week, but remain below normal. Tranquil weather expected through Tuesday with a sfc high building over the region, but a clipper system could bring some additional showers and a reinforcing cold frontal passage Tuesday night or Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions through this afternoon outside of any scattered showers/thunderstorms, which are more likely to occur 22Z/Thu-03Z/Fri at KGFL, with lower chances farther south and east between roughly 00Z-04Z/Fri. Brief heavy downpours will produce periods of MVFR/IFR conditions. Additional showers accompanying a cold front will move west to east across the TAF sites between 05Z-10Z/Fri, with Cigs lowering to MVFR and VFR/MVFR Vsbys. In the wake of the front, a period of MVFR Cigs are expected, with occasional IFR possible at KPSF after 12Z/Fri. In addition, scattered showers and/or patchy drizzle will be possible Friday morning in the wake of the front. South to southwest winds will increase to 8-12 KT this afternoon with a few gusts of 20-25 KT possible. Winds will then shift into the west later tonight at 5-10 KT, then become north to northeast Friday morning at 8-12 KT with a few gusts up to 20 KT possible. Winds will be stronger and variable in direction in/near thunderstorms. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures(Year Set): Thursday April 16: Albany: 91(2012) Glens Falls: 89(2002) Poughkeepsie: 91(2012) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...35 AVIATION...24 CLIMATE...07