Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion
148 FXUS61 KALY 040009 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 809 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... While a few showers will be possible this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front, most of the region should stay dry this afternoon. Some additional showers tonight for southern areas should taper off early tomorrow morning with a dry and seasonably warm day expected. Then, another round of widespread rainfall is expected Friday night through the weekend, with well below normal temperatures moving into the region behind this storm system next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... .UPDATE...As of 8 PM EDT, Wind Advisory for southwest Adirondacks has been let to expire, as wind gusts have generally decreased to 25-35 mph or less with decreasing mixing depth. Elsewhere, cold front located from SW VT to just south/east of KALB into southern Schoharie County and settling south/east. A few sprinkles were occurring along the front, with a few additional light showers/sprinkles on the cool side of the sfc front across the central Catskills. Still expect some showers to develop for some areas south of I-90 later this evening, with best chances closer to I-84 after midnight. [PREVIOUS]...As of 3:40 PM EDT...995 mb surface low is now located near the southeast end of James Bay, and is vertically stacked beneath a closed upper low. While it has taken longer than previously expected, the system`s warm front is currently lifting northwards across our region. Portions of the ADKs and especially the CT River Valley in southern VT remain in the 40s to low 50s, while portions of the Catskills and Mid Hudson Valley are approaching 70. Temperatures continue to warm a few more degrees, especially for northern areas as the warm front continues to lift northwards. Most of the region is dry at this time, although there is a line of showers extending into the southern ADKs ahead of the system`s cold front. These showers will gradually track southeastwards through the region this afternoon and evening ahead of the cold front. An isolated rumble of thunder can`t totally be ruled out, although this will be the exception rather than the rule with only minimal instability. Additionally, there was some consideration given to dropping the wind advisory with this update given that winds look marginal, although ultimately we decided to continue it given latest NYS mesonet obs showing some wind gusts to around 45 mph behind this line of showers where there is more clearing. Tonight, the surface low weakens as it tracks north of our region, and the trailing cold front tracks through from west to east. A few showers will be possible ahead of the front early this evening. We should see a drying trend overnight as high pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes and western New York. However, another upper-level disturbance is expected to track along the cold front tonight. This could spread some additional showers into our southern few counties. There is still some uncertainty as to exactly how far south the front makes it before this upper disturbance arrives, although based on 12z guidance and current obs it seems like the best chance for showers will be closer to the I-84 corridor tonight. These showers should generally be tapering off as we head towards Friday morning. Lows will range from the 30s in the ADKs to upper 40s for portions of the Mid Hudson Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: - Dry conditions Friday with cooling temperatures in the wake of a cold front. - Additional chances for rain and possibly some mixed precipitation late Friday night and Saturday. Discussion: Friday...surface high pressure will be in control, which should keep our region mainly dry as the cold frontal boundary settles to the south of our region. Tomorrow should end up partly cloudy and it will be breezy in the afternoon, especially where the flow is channeled down the Mohawk Valley through the Capital District and into the Berkshires. Tomorrow will be cooler than today for most areas, but temperatures should still reach the 60s for many valley areas. Friday night, the surface high retreats to the northeast, and clouds increase ahead of our next storm system. A few showers will be possible towards daybreak Saturday, especially south and west of the Capital District. Lows will be mainly in the 30s to around 40. Saturday and Saturday night...the aforementioned showers will be the result of our cold frontal boundary lifting back north as a warm front. A wave of low pressure develops along the front and tracks to the west of our region. With enhanced moisture transport and moisture convergence in the vicinity of the front combined with mid-level isentropic lift and warm advection, precipitation becomes fairly widespread Saturday into Saturday night. Precipitation is expected to be mostly rain, although with the surface high retreating to the northeast we will likely see some cold air damming in portions of the ADKs, upper Hudson Valley, southern VT, and along the east slopes of the Berkshires. These areas, in particular the ADKs and southern Greens, could see some freezing rain as the warm nose aloft moves overhead while the surface warm front struggles to lift northwards on Saturday. We can`t totally rule out needing winter weather advisories for these areas at some point, although the freezing rain looks to be more confined to the mountains compared to the event last night into this morning. Given that the cold air tends to hang on longer than modeled in these setups, we blended in more of the colder NAM solution across these aforementioned areas for temperatures Saturday. QPF amounts look to be around a half inch to an inch and a half. While we are not expecting much in the way of hydro issues, within-bank rises on local rivers and streams can be expected, as well as perhaps the typical nuisance urban/poor drainage ponding of water. The warm front slowly continues to lift northwards Saturday night, and we should see a changeover to plain rain region-wide. Rain continues through Sunday morning, with lows in the 30s to 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages: - High confidence in continued widespread rainfall Sunday, possibly into Monday. All areas have a 10-30% chance of an additional half inch of rain or more. - High confidence in below normal temperatures beginning next Tuesday. 30-50% chance of one inch of snow in mountain areas Tuesday. Discussion: Long term period begins at 12z Sunday with the aforementioned surface warm front expected to have lifted north of our region, putting us in a narrow warm sector. There are some questions as to whether or not the warm front will get hung up south of the ADKs and southern Greens. However, as surface low pressure tracks by to our north, the cold front will drop track across the region on Sunday. Along and ahead of the front, continued showers, and perhaps an isolated rumble of thunder will be possible. Behind the cold front, we will likely see some drying, especially for northwestern areas by Sunday afternoon to early evening. Depending on how quickly the cold front tracks through our region and how far north the surface warm front makes it, we could potentially see temperatures climb into the 60s near the I-84 corridor, although if the cold front is faster then temperatures here may end up below the current forecast. Despite the lull in precip Sunday afternoon and evening, guidance is in decent agreement that another wave of low pressure will develop along the cold front beneath an upper shortwave and track southeast of our region Sunday night. This will likely spread some additional showers into our region, as there will be additional forcing for ascent from the right entrance region of an upper jet streak translating east/southeastwards from the St. Lawrence Valley. With colder air filtering into the region behind the front some wet snowflakes could mix in, especially over the higher terrain areas west of Albany. Precipitation should generally begin to taper off by mid to late morning on Monday (and possibly earlier). Drier weather is then expected Monday afternoon as a narrow ridge of high pressure builds into the region. Lows Sunday night will be mainly in the 30s, with highs Monday in the 40s and 50s. Monday night through midweek...Guidance is in good agreement that a potent upper trough will dig down into the Great Lakes region Monday night, and transition fro positively to negatively tilted as it eventually tracks across upstate NY into northern New England Tuesday into Tuesday night. There is also good agreement for a clipper system to develop ahead of the upper trough. This will likely result in at least some valley rain and mountain snow showers, and valley areas may see some snow showers as well depending on the track of the low center. Chances for snow will be highest in the western ADKs, where some lake enhancement will also take place. This will be thanks to an unusually cold airmass moving into the region behind a sharp cold front associated with the surface low. Temperatures fall quickly Tuesday afternoon or evening behind the cold front, and it winds could be gusty as well with high pressure off to our west. Unusually cold temperatures continue Tuesday night through Wednesday night, although the airmass may moderate somewhat by Thursday. The coldest period looks to be Tuesday night, when lows drop into the 10s to 20s are expected. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 00Z/Sat...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Cold front will continue settling south and east overnight. A few showers may affect KPOU and KPSF between 06Z-12Z/Fri, however rain should remain light with VFR conditions expected. Clearing is expected for Friday with just some passing high clouds at times. South to southwest winds early this evening will shift into the west to northwest in the wake of the cold front at 5-10 KT with a few gusts of 15-20 KT possible immediately behind the front. Winds will veer slightly Friday morning and increase to 8-12 KT with a few gusts of 20-25 KT possible. Low level wind shear will remain possible through around 03Z/Fri as winds around 2000 FT AGL from the west at 35-45 KT, while winds near the surface shift from the southwest to west/northwest and remain generally below 12 KT. Outlook... Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. && .FIRE WEATHER... Despite gusty winds this afternoon, widespread precipitation earlier today will limit the threat for fire spread. Additional rainfall is expected tonight for areas south of I-90, and especially towards the I-84 corridor. While RH values tomorrow are expected to drop to 35- 45% in the Hudson Valley, wind gusts will generally remain in the 15- 20 mph range or lower, except for around the Capital District where more frequent gusts to around 20 mph are possible tomorrow afternoon. Nevertheless, given the limited overlap of stronger winds and lower RH values, combined with the recent precipitation, the potential for fire spread tomorrow does not look to be high enough to warrant SPS issuance at this time. Widespread rain is expected Friday night into the weekend, which should further mitigate any fire weather concerns through early next week. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Main NEAR TERM...KL/Main SHORT TERM...Main LONG TERM...Main AVIATION...Frugis/KL FIRE WEATHER...Main