Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion

158
FXUS61 KALY 260538
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
138 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rain showers this morning with a few thunderstorms
late this afternoon into the early evening hours. With any
thunderstorm that develops, the primary hazards are gusty winds.
Drier conditions are in store for tomorrow, with breezy winds,
through Tuesday morning. Next chances for precipitation for
eastern New York and western New England returns Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Key Message:

 -  Isolated to scattered thunderstorms (20-40% chance) expected
    late this afternoon into the early evening.

Discussion:

As of 1:38 AM EDT... Widespread rain showers continue to move
through eastern New York and western New England based on latest
radar scans and surface observations. So far precipitation
amounts have been on the lighter side with most locations seeing
between 0.01 to 0.1 inches. Beneficial rain showers continues
tonight. Minor update to probability of precipitation through
this afternoon to reflect current trends of where thunderstorms
could develop this early evening. The previous discussion is
still on track for this morning and afternoon in regards to the
current forecast, see below for more details.

Previous Discussion...Later this evening and especially into
the overnight hours, showers will become more widespread as
larger scale forcing increases as an upper level short wave and
associated surface cyclone approach from the west. Deep layer
moisture increases as PWAT anomalies rise to +2 to +3 tonight
into Sat morning, so brief periods of heavy rain may occur at
times especially within any embedded elevated convective
elements. With clouds/showers occurring, low temperatures will
be mild with mainly 50s expected.

Widespread showers continue through much of Sat morning. It
appears there will then be a break during the late morning to
early afternoon hours as much of our area gets into a pseudo
warm sector ahead of a cold front approaching from central NY.
Most CAMs continue to depict a broken line of showers/T-storms
developing in the warm/moist environment. Threat of severe
storms still looks rather low, with forecast SBCAPE ~500-800
J/Kg from Albany south/east. With 0-6 km shear of 40-50 kt, some
storms may briefly become organized with some strong wind gusts
possible. High temperatures could spike into the lower 70s in
lower elevations prior to the cold front passage late afternoon.
Timing of the front still somewhat in question, but overall
trend has been for a slower passage. Total rainfall expected to
range from 0.75-1.50", which should not result in any hydro
concerns given recent dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

 -  Gusty northwest winds Sunday with a 30-70+% chance for
    gusts exceeding 40 mph (greatest chances across higher
    terrain).

Discussion:

As the primary surface cyclone tracks into Maine, the system`s
upper level low will move into northern NY/VT Sat night. This
will result in wrap-around/upslope showers developing across
parts of the Adirondacks into the southern Greens of VT.
Temperatures get cold enough late Sat night into Sun morning for
rain showers to mix with/change to snow showers mainly above
1500 ft. A dusting of snow may occur in some of these higher
terrain spots. Otherwise, widely scattered rain showers expected
across most of the area. Lows Sat night will be much cooler
ranging from 30s in the higher terrain to lower/mid 40s in lower
elevations.

NW winds will become quite gusty on Sun due to pressure
gradient increasing, as low pressure tracks into E. Maine and
high pressure builds east across the upper/central Great Lakes.
Peak wind gusts of 30-40 mph expected especially from around
I-90 south. Precip. chances will lower by late Sun afternoon, as
the upper low moves farther away. Highs will be below normal,
with 40s in the mountains and 50s in valleys.

Dry conditions with clearing skies expected Sun night, as high
pressure builds in from the west. There will still be a
persistent NW breeze as the center of the high remains to our
west. Lows will range from 30s in the higher terrain to
lower/mid 40s in lower elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Potential for severe thunderstorms (15-29% chance) Tuesday
  afternoon and evening mainly north and west of the Capital
  District.

Discussion:

High pressure will be positioned across the region on Mon,
bringing dry/clear conditions along with a milder air mass.
Temperatures will warm back to above normal levels Mon
afternoon.

The next chance of impactful weather looks to be late Tue into
Tue night, with strong to severe T-storms possible. A warm S-SW
flow will occur ahead of a strong cold front approaching from
the Great Lakes. highs could approach 80F in lower elevations.
Based on the latest model guidance timing looks to be the main
issue as it will depend on if storms are able to maintain
strength after dark, as the cold front is expected to move
through our area Tue night. For now, the Storm Prediction Center
has the NW third of our area under an equivalent Slight Risk
(level 2 of 5) for severe storms. The wind field looks quite
strong with 0-6 km shear of 40+ kt. So it will depend on
magnitude of instability after dark. Will continue to monitor
trends.

Behind the cold front, it will turn cooler and drier on Wed.
Highs still look slightly above normal with a NW breeze. High
pressure builds in Wed night into Thu with dry conditions and
near normal temperatures. The next system looks to approach Thu
night into Fri with chances for showers increasing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR, although periods of showers are
starting to spread into the from the southwest.  This will become a
steady rainfall over the next few hours, which will allow for flying
conditions to lower to MVFR for both ceilings and visibility by 07z-
08z.   Some IFR conditions are possible for the last few hours of
the overnight and most areas will be seeing IFR visibility and
ceilings for the start of the day on Saturday, with steady rainfall
ongoing for the early to mid morning hours.  Within the steady
rainfall, winds will become south to southwest at 5 to 10 kts.  A
few higher gusts are possible for KALB/KPSF through the morning
hours as well, with some gusts up to 20 kts possible.

The steady rainfall will taper off to showers by midday for all
sites.  Another round of showers and potentially thunderstorms
(mainly for KPSF/KPOU) is expected ahead of a cold front during the
afternoon hours.  While it should be MVFR most of the time in the
afternoon, flying conditions may briefly lower to IFR within any
heavier showers or thunderstorms ahead of the cold front.  Winds
will be southwest around 10 kts for all sites.

Behind the front, winds will increase to 10 to 15 kts will some
higher gusts for Saturday evening into Saturday night.  Flying
conditions will improve back to VFR, although bkn cigs around 3500
ft should continue for all sites into Saturday night.  Most of the
precip should be shutting off but a few lingering showers can`t be
totally ruled out with the upper level through nearby.


Outlook...

Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 35 kts. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Webb
NEAR TERM...JPV/Webb
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Frugis

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion