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Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion
077 FXUS61 KALY 150956 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 556 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Our stretch of dry weather continues through much of this week with temperatures ranging 5 to 10 degrees above normal. A weakening coastal low approaches Wednesday but the probability of rain showers continues to trend downwards. Then, a more potent cold front arrives Friday resulting in breezier winds and more fall-like temperatures for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Those seeking relief from the continued dry weather unfortunately will not find relief this week. An upper level Rex Block pattern from the Great Lakes builds eastward through tomorrow with the associated 590dam anti-cyclone aloft maintaining mid and upper level subsidence over the Northeast. Meanwhile, a 1025hPa sfc high from Ontario, Canada builds into eastern New England with 850hPa isotherms rising to +10 to +13C, supporting above normal temperatures. The Rex Block will usher in quite the dry air mass with PWATs not only falling under 1" but even approaching 0.5" tomorrow. Such a dry air mass will also promote boundary layer mixing but forecast soundings shows the subsidence inversion in the 850-700hPa range with very weak easterly winds. While these factors will likely limit temperatures from overperforming, we still expect temperatures to reach 5-10 degrees above normal today and tomorrow. In fact, probabilistic guidance shows 60-90% chance for highs to rise at or above 80 degrees in valley areas but nearly 0% chance for temperatures to reach the mid-80s. The dry air mass and mainly clear skies at night will also promote a large diurnal range. Overnight lows both tonight and tomorrow night look to fall into the 40s to mid 50s with radiational cooling supporting patchy fog development, especially in valley areas. Otherwise, generally expecting morning sun to mix with diurnally driven afternoon clouds today with mainly sunny skies tomorrow fading behind a cirrus canopy late afternoon as a weakening coastal low from the Carolinas gradually presses northward. The weakening coastal low looks to track off the mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday into Wednesday night and remain south of New England through Thursday. While it will be nearest to eastern NY and western New England on Wednesday, probabilistic and ensemble guidance continues to trend rainfall potential downwards given weakening forcing and lackluster moisture. POPs have therefore been lowered to under 20% and limited to areas well south of I-90 on Wednesday with only low end chance POPs grazing southern Litchfield. Cloud coverage increases Wednesday, especially in the mid-Hudson Valley and western New England, as mid and upper level moisture spreads overhead, which when combined with the easterly wind fetch, will keep temperatures lower in comparison to Monday/Tuesday. Still expecting highs in the low to mid 70s with slightly warmer temperatures in the Upper Hudson Valley in the upper 70s further away from the thicker cloud coverage. Thursday will feature the warmest day of the week as the coastal low departs to our east and weak high pressure builds overhead supporting plenty of sunshine ahead of a potent cold front marching south and eastward out of the Canada. With deep boundary layer mixing at play and slightly warmer 850hPa isotherms aloft, probabilistic guidance shows greater than 75% chance for temperatures to exceed 80 (outside of the higher terrain) with even 20-40% chance for temperatures to reach the mid-80s in valley areas. Our potent cold front then arrives on Friday (still some discrepancies on exacting timing) with breezy northwest winds in its wake ushering in a much cooler and more fall-like air mass. Lackluster moisture along the boundary keeps POPs again under 20% Thursday night and limited to just the southern Adirondacks. It will feel like fall for the weekend as 850hPa isotherms fall 1 to 2 standard deviations below normal per the NAEFS. In fact, probabilistic guidance shows 50 to 75% chance for daytime highs Saturday to remain below 70 degrees in valley areas. With favorable radiational cooling expected Friday night and especially Saturday night, we will monitor potential frost conditions in the western/southern Adirondacks. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12z/Tue...High pressure over the region will bring VFR conditions for much of the upcoming TAF period with a few fair weather cumulus and cirrus clouds at times. Any lingering fog at KGFL/KPSF will lift by around 12z/Mon. Fog will likely redevelop tonight, especially at KGFL. Wind will become variable at around 5 kt today trending light to calm again tonight. Outlook... Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Speciale DISCUSSION...Speciale AVIATION...Rathbun